This page is my attempt to explain the history of the web, and what I think that the past suggests for the future of the web. Predicting the future rarely works, and I'm not suggesting that any of the following will happen. Also, there are as many ways to describe the history of the web as there are historians.
But let's start with the history. I'm going to present two models of the web's history: one popularized by Tim O'Reilly, and my own pet model.
The Popular O'Reilly Model
- Web 1.0 (past) — Websites consist of information, presented to the viewer. These pages may be static or dynamic, and they may provide connections to the real world, as in online stores.
- Web 2.0 (present) — Websites are avenues for connecting people. Sites like Facebook and Twitter are explicitly all about getting people to send short messages to each other. Even online stores now provide customer ratings and reviews, and forums where customers can talk about purchases.
- Web 3.0 (future) — Websites are pure medium. It's not about images and embedded video; it's an experience. Similar to painting, where you don't think about oil and canvas when looking at The Last Supper.
As you can see, that's a coarse model, but helpful. Here's my more detailed view:
Brent's Web Timeline
Phase One: Education (mid-90's)
After its development at DARPA, the web first caught on at universities. Most early webpages were college course descriptions and professors' personal pages, then student pages. Those personal pages then grew to contain information about the individual's hobbies, how-to documents, etc.
The content was all primarily educational and informational. When a person went "surfing the net" back then, they were primarily looking for how-tos, instructions, and maybe some facts and figures.
Phase Two: Commercial (late-90's to early-00's)
As businesses came online, the web shifted into a commercial hub. With the massive popularity of e-commerce sites like Amazon.com, people could now shop for just about anything online. Now, when folks "surfed the net," they were primarily shopping (while still occasionally looking for how-tos, instructions, etc.).
Phase Three: Social (present)
We've seen a recent shift towards "social networking" on the web. While there's always been a lot of discussion online, now there are many sites devoted just to letting people talk, trade links, post news stories, etc. Three popular news sites, Fark, Digg, and Slashdot, consist entirely of viewer-submitted stories.
Now, when folks go online, while they still shop and look for information, they also check email, go on Facebook or MySpace, check forums, and otherwise interact with other people.
Phase Four: Entertainment (future)
I expect the next shift to be towards entertainment. We'll see something like the next Stephen King and Saturday Night Live emerge online. The hot new websites will be those that provide entertaining content, from comedy to drama. We're already beginning to see this with homemade comedy series like LoadingReadyRun on YouTube.
Of course, who ever knows?